See instability before it becomes a crisis.
OTAP combines threat intelligence, political economy and incentives-based analysis to identify emerging risks, explain what sustains them, and determine which levers can alter their trajectory.
What OTAP is watching right now
OTAP is currently monitoring two developing stories. The first is the US war on Iran, which continues to stretch on with mixed signs of the official conclusion. Negotiations stretch on, while agreements are frequently amended or repealed. The risk of catastrophic escalation targeting civilian infrastructure remains very high. Similarly, the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan remains critical, with tensions recently flaring again. The structural drivers of the war remain unresolved, as Afghanistan is unlikely to crack down on Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), while Pakistan's military leadership considers the TTP a fundamental enemy with whom negotiation is impossible.
We are also closely monitoring the humanitarian crisis in Cuba. Prolonged blackouts have pushed essential services, including hospitals, water supply, and food distribution, to the limit, sparking public protests. Russia has signalled its intent to supply Cuba with oil tankers, introducing a potential flashpoint. Any resolution of the growing humanitarian crisis depends heavily on whether Washington is willing to define and offer concrete terms for any deal.
From information to leverage.
OTAP does not stop at identifying risk. Analysis moves from observable signals to structural explanation, then toward the incentives and mechanisms capable of changing the trajectory.
Observe
Build the widest possible picture before narrowing the assessment.
- Open-source intelligence
- Political and economic data
- Trade and transit patterns
- Rhetoric and public perception
What is changing?
Identify
Separate meaningful indicators from the surrounding information noise.
- Pre-Kinetic Indicators
- Mobilisation patterns
- Economic stress signals
- Information-operation signatures
Which signals matter?
Explain
Move beyond events to the interests, capabilities and constraints producing them.
- Actor interests
- Material capabilities
- Institutional constraints
- Political economy
Why is this happening?
Map
Identify what sustains the status quo and where meaningful leverage actually exists.
- Economic incentives
- Dependency structures
- Decision authorities
- Leverage points
What can alter the calculation?
Act
Translate analysis into realistic options tied to actors, mechanisms and enforceable incentives.
- Likely trajectories
- Decision options
- Escalation pathways
- Stabilisation mechanisms
What can actually be done?
Latest reports
The Peace-Intelligence Framework
OTAP works with institutions that need to anticipate instability, understand what is driving it, and identify credible mechanisms capable of changing its trajectory.
Anticipate
Identify emerging risks before they become expensive, politically constrained or operationally irreversible.
Earlier decisions with greater room to manoeuvre.
Understand
Explain the interests, economic structures, capabilities and constraints that sustain a political or security environment.
A clearer picture of what is actually driving events.
Influence
Identify the leverage, incentives and relationships capable of changing an actor's calculation without assuming cooperation.
Actionable leverage tied to realistic peace options.
Discrete solutions for a safer world.
OTAP works directly with institutions confronting complex political, security and strategic environments where public analysis alone is insufficient.
Engagements are structured around the decision at hand: the intelligence required, the actors involved, the constraints shaping the environment, and the leverage available to change it.
Private Intelligence
Bespoke assessments for institutions requiring analysis beyond OTAP's public intelligence output.
Emerging threats, regional exposure, escalation risk and decision-specific intelligence requirements.
Strategic Advisory
Decision support for institutions navigating political, economic and security environments with competing interests and incomplete information.
Strategic options, political-economy analysis, stakeholder mapping and scenario planning.
Track 2 & Strategic Dialogue
Discreet analytical and engagement support where formal channels are constrained, politically sensitive or insufficient.
Stakeholder engagement, incentive design, informal dialogue and stabilisation pathways.
Curious? Book a free evaluation.
Tell us what your institution needs, and OTAP will determine the analytical scope, relevant expertise and appropriate form of engagement.