Hezbollah, Disarmament Efforts and the Impact of the Iran War on Southern Lebanon
Author: Ariel Robledo
Editors: Avery Kachmarsky, Boginene Jones & Ksenia Luzhko
Lebanon’s national disarmament plan has been effectively paralysed. Following Hezbollah's entry into active conflict after the Iranian leadership decapitation in early 2026, the military deployment south of the Litani River faces structural obstacles that go far beyond operational constraints.
This threat assessment examines how Hezbollah's decentralisation, LAF fragmentation, and the weaponisation of civilian displacement may be collectively foreclosing a viable pathway to Lebanese sovereign control over its southern border.