Access confirmed.

OTAP is currently monitoring two ongoing conflicts. The first is the US war on Iran, which continues to stretch on with very few signs of officially concluding. The US issued a deadline threatening the "complete demolition" of Iranian power plants and bridges in early April if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, before signing a two-week ceasefire. The risk of catastrophic escalation targeting civilian infrastructure remains very high. Similarly, the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan also remains critical. The structural drivers of the war remain unresolved, as Afghanistan is unlikely to crack down on Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), while Pakistan's military leadership considers the TTP a fundamental enemy with whom negotiation is impossible. New peace talks are currently underway in China, offering a narrow diplomatic off-ramp, but the underlying tensions remain highly volatile, particularly given the wider regional instability from the Iran war.

We are also closely monitoring the humanitarian crisis in Cuba. Prolonged blackouts have pushed essential services, including hospitals, water supply, and food distribution, to the limit, sparking public protests. Russia has signalled its intent to supply Cuba with oil tankers, introducing a potential flashpoint. Any resolution of the growing humanitarian crisis depends heavily on whether Washington is willing to define and offer concrete terms for any deal.