Threat Assessments

With an ever-shifting political landscape, the global order remains incredibly dynamic. On this page, you can find OTAP’s analyses concerning transnational terrorist tactics, armed group activities, and other emerging security threats.

Filter

Featured
Post-Conflict Instability in the South Caucasus Region
Post-Conflict Instability in the South Caucasus Region
Syria’s Post-Assad Captagon Market
Syria’s Post-Assad Captagon Market
Hybrid Threat Landscape in Poland Following the Mika Railway Explosion
Hybrid Threat Landscape in Poland Following the Mika Railway Explosion
Venezuela's Role in Facilitating Iran and Hezbollah’s Transnational Threats
Venezuela's Role in Facilitating Iran and Hezbollah’s Transnational Threats
Vulnerabilities in ISIS Detention Sites and Displacement Centres Amid US Military Shifts in Syria
Vulnerabilities in ISIS Detention Sites and Displacement Centres Amid US Military Shifts in Syria
Escalation Risks and Strategic Fallout from Thai–Cambodian Border Clashes
Escalation Risks and Strategic Fallout from Thai–Cambodian Border Clashes
Profiling US Political Extremism and Targeted Assassinations
Profiling US Political Extremism and Targeted Assassinations
Cameroon’s Divided Opposition and the Risk of Post-Election Instability
Cameroon’s Divided Opposition and the Risk of Post-Election Instability
Russia’s Hybrid Interference Tactics and Lessons Learned from the Moldovan Elections
Russia’s Hybrid Interference Tactics and Lessons Learned from the Moldovan Elections
Narco-Subs and Cartel Innovation Beneath the Waves
Narco-Subs and Cartel Innovation Beneath the Waves
China’s Hydrogen Bomb and Implications for Future Non-Nuclear Warfare
China’s Hydrogen Bomb and Implications for Future Non-Nuclear Warfare
Drone Strikes Threatening Kurdistan Oil Fields Amid Escalating Militant Activity
Drone Strikes Threatening Kurdistan Oil Fields Amid Escalating Militant Activity
Evolving Human Trafficking Routes in the Balkans and the Mediterranean
Evolving Human Trafficking Routes in the Balkans and the Mediterranean
ELN’s Shift Towards Attack Drones Creates New Challenges for Colombian Security Forces
ELN’s Shift Towards Attack Drones Creates New Challenges for Colombian Security Forces
The Battle for El Fasher in Sudan and the Risk of Regional Collapse
The Battle for El Fasher in Sudan and the Risk of Regional Collapse
Post-Operation Green Shield, the Illicit Economies and the Impact on the Amazon Basin
Post-Operation Green Shield, the Illicit Economies and the Impact on the Amazon Basin
Femicide and Gender-Based Violence in Northern Ireland
Femicide and Gender-Based Violence in Northern Ireland
Resurgence of Islamic Extremism in Syria following the Mar Elias Church Suicide Bombing
Resurgence of Islamic Extremism in Syria following the Mar Elias Church Suicide Bombing
Geopolitical and Organised Crime Threats from the Revocation of Cuban-American Humanitarian Status
Geopolitical and Organised Crime Threats from the Revocation of Cuban-American Humanitarian Status